May 20, 2010 0
China market – where is it headed?
China was only acutely affected by the Global Financial Crisis but the market has over grown some market sectors such as residential and high end hotels this is due to the Expo and also some of the 2009 stimulus money entering the development market. Currently the government is increasing the use of financial instruments and tools to cool the residential market. Also recently over the last week or so the Shanghai stock exchange is correcting not due to the Greece and Euro issues but the market got to hot to fast with P/E ratios and share prices rising too quickly so a correction was imminent. So the China market is somewhat decoupled from the rest of the world.
The Chinese stock market is often one of the only investment outlets for people to place their cash and as property was going off and the government was making it increasingly harder to invest in property, money went into the stock market too quickly now the market is correcting people are moving to gold as a safe haven. So where to from here is the question on many people’s minds as money starts pouring into gold?
Well my guess is that Chinese can only invest so much in gold and the stock market and the investors will start to move towards domestic consumption but will continue to move more money offshore to cheap property in the USA and Europe hoping that the price of property will rise over the next few years quicker than the yuan appreciates.
Domestic consumption will be fueled by creating new retail centres. Although commercial office space will continue to flow along but the supply is currently too high for the requirements of many cities however, retail has lagged with retail mostly only developed as street front shopping with stores usually only 20-50 square metres therefore more energy will be heading towards developing retail shopping centres with anchor department stores.
Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Beijing are currently already catered for with many retail centres areas with a wide variety of configurations. Therefore, developers are now shifting focus to cities such Hangzhou, Suzhou, Wuxi, Ningbo, Qingdao, Tianjin, Xiamen and other Tier 2 & 3 cities along the coast as retail demand is growing fast with brands already having distribution and logistics networks along the coastline of China.
I also see more and more companies looking to invest in new distribution companies to import products from abroad for domestic consumption or partner with existing companies to create new distribution channels. Although there is a big focus in China on luxury brands with numerous stores opening across China and especially in Tier 1 cities such as Shanghai and Beijing. However there is a middle class with increasing wealth that often doesn’t see the value in luxury brands and these consumers are the ones pushing the growth of such retailers as H&M, Zara and car companies such as Buick, VW and Ford. The middle class realise that they can’t afford the BMW’s and Louis Vuitton bags but they can purchase well known good quality foreign brands. I see more and more American & European brands entering the market to fill the gap between the local stores and the High end shopping malls with smaller shopping centers with middle range tenants & product that are fashionable but not overly expensive.
Contact Damian via email damian@damianholmes.com or phone +86 15000919590
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